To reach this result, researchers have been calculating the price with a model that measures the number of medals in terms of government spending on sports, among other variables. “This model allows us to measure precisely how much extra spending is needed to win a medal,” explained UC3M teachers, Juan de Dios Tena and J. Ramón Flores, who have done this study within the research group in Economics of Sport, led by Professor David Forrest, University of Salford (England) and also comprises Ismael Sanz, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos and Jaime Alvarez , University Complutense of Madrid.
“We have estimated the relationship between these costs and Olympic success once also takes into account the effect of economic variables, political and relevant demographic, as the size of the country,” said Tena. This work was presented at the workshop “The Economic of the Olympic Games in Groningen in July 2008 under the title” Can governments buy Olympic medals? ” and is currently under review in a research journal.
In the area of Economics of Sport these researchers use econometric models (usually regression type) to analyze sporting events in which conditions appear economic. The general idea of the hub is that there are many possible causes of a phenomenon. “A regression model provides an estimate of the individual effect of each of these cases once they control all the others,” says Professor Flores, allowing rigorous conclusions from statistical models that can determine the specific influence of a element in the sporting context.
The dilemma to fire coach
For football teams, for example, this group of researchers has analyzed the figure of technical trainer and found that the effect of firing a coach mid-season is more negative than positive when it tends to repeat this situation. “A coaching change reduces average number of points scored in eight games in a unit,” he commented.
From the results obtained for several seasons by the league clubs in Argentina, the econometric model developed shows an inverse relationship between the redundancy and performance. In short, the more layoffs, the worse results in the medium term. “Similar work done in European leagues, where the number of layoffs is lower, show no such effect, suggesting that the abuse of layoffs may generate negative consequences in this context,” they conclude these professors in the Department of Statistics UC3M.
Another related issue that these investigators have studied was the effect it had the Bosman ruling of 1995 in the competitiveness of major league soccer. Before it, in national competitions governed a very strong limitation on the number of foreigners per team fichables, resulting in the good foreign players landfall usually available at big clubs. With the new legislation removed that limitation, greatly increased the number of players available, which mid-level clubs could also be strengthened under properly and increase their level as well as the competitiveness of the tournaments.
“To measure this increased use measures well known in the literature, for example the percentage of the total points achieved by the two, four or ten best teams in the league, while taking into account other factors that influenced the change of market, such as the introduction of the Champions League and their subsequent rewards “they say. The conclusion: since the entry into force of the Bosman ruling reduced the ratio of points of the two best teams in 2 per cent and eight at 4 percent.
This type of data and research can provide guidance and assistance in the decision making process. In addition, the responses obtained can be extrapolated to broader contexts. “Our intention is to apply them profusely and assist in the resolution of questions that generate debate in society that produce interesting findings that are rarely studied with the rigor they deserve,” say these teachers on the campus of the UC3M Colmer, who have the impression that in this area are often presented as ‘analysis’ work goes beyond just mere opinion.
“Because of the media for everything related to sports – complain – usually appear low statistical studies or made directly by amateurs, Derived from pedestrians from samples that do not offer the slightest guarantee.”